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Pima County, Arizona. Where did all of the votes come from?

Updated: Jan 11

By Seth Dobson | January 10, 2022

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Pima County, AZ Elections Center

Votes were up considerably in Pima County, Arizona, where mail-in and early voting makes up the vast majority of the ballots. Official canvass totals show Biden at 304,981 with Trump at 207,758. Trump topped Biden by more than 2 to 1 in the "Polls" vote -- an interesting figure in Arizona as Clinton and Trump were about even in the 2016 "Poll" voting. Clinton carried the county at 224,661 (80,000 less

than Biden) with Trump at 167,428 (40,000

fewer than in 2020). (See table below).

*Additional 2020 "voters"

Now under scrutiny for possible irregularities following the Senate ordered Maricopa audit, we see Donald Trump's performance strong in comparison to U.S. Senate Candidate Martha McSally until that "early" ballot percentage reaches a very high percentage of the ballots cast in the precincts. We should note that the early ballot return rate was 87%, whereas the early voting return rate for all other counties equaled 67.6%. 46 of 246 precincts showed a 90% or greater overall turnout rate (excluding two which were an actual tie, one has no voters). The Pima

canvass shows provisional votes make up about 3% of the overall total, falling 52% to 45% Trump over Biden, but are not broken down by early/polls and not included here. In the 246, Trump received a higher percentage of the early vote in 95 (38.618%), McSally in 151 (61.382%).

But starting at: 88.065% to 96.181%, Trump had a higher percentage in only 17 (16.190%), while McSally outperformed in 88 (83.810%). (See video below.)


We see below that except for the one precinct at the 94% level, McSally is coming in higher in 80% to 100% of the precincts until we reach the 88% level, with the picture changing in the 87% bracket. Trump easily outperforms her by precinct in the 84% to 86% (early to total) brackets and holds his own as these early return percentages descend downward.

Higher Percentage Precinct Count Trump/McSally by Early Share Turnout

96% to 96.99, Trump 0, McSally 1 (100%)

95% to 95.99, Trump 0, McSally 2 (100%)

94% to 94.99, Trump 1 (50%), McSally 1 (50%)

93% to 93.99, Trump 0, McSally 6 (100%)

92% to 92.99, Trump 1 (8.333%), McSally 11 (91.667%)

91% to 91.99, Trump 3 (17.647%), McSally 14 (82.353%)

90% to 90.99, Trump 2 (11.765%), McSally 15 (88.235%)

89% to 89.99, Trump 6 (20%), McSally 24 (80%)

88% to 89.99, Trump 4 (22.222%), McSally 14 (77.778%)

87% to 87.99, Trump 12 (44.444%), McSally 15 (55.556%)

86% to 86.99, Trump 12 (63.158%), McSally 7 (36.842%)

85% to 85.99, Trump 10 (62.5%), McSally 6 (37.5%)

84% to 84.99, Trump 16 (72.727%), McSally 6 (27.273%)

"So, this would have benefited Biden in the high brackets?" Yes, that is what we see. With the Jorgensen factor, Democrat Senate candidate Kelly outperforms Biden in 195 of 246 precincts (79.268%). Kelly is higher for 63 precincts in a row starting at the 83.984% early vote level ascending to the precinct at 87.08%. Biden starts to take off at 90.865%, surpassing Kelly in the remaining 44 precincts through 96.181%, 27 (61.364%) to 17 (38.636%).

The question is, "What happened?" Why would the tickets split against Trump when the returns hit these very high numbers? We should have a thorough explanation. If ballots were counted for voters who didn't vote, there is a serious problem.


McSally outperforms Trump at these very high levels. At approximately 86% to 87%, this starts to change and then flips to Trump. Biden flips over Kelly at these high return levels. (Highest early vote share percentages ascending.) (Table below.)

Trump outperforming McSally in early return to total brackets in precincts before highest percentages reached. Early vote share of total ballots by precinct ascending (section showing Kelly outperforming Biden, Trump outperforming McSally) before this flips. (Table below.)


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